Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Corn


   


 

How to Use the Probabilistic Price Forecasts
Corn Futures and Options Contract Specifications
Home

July 2013 Corn Futures
December 2013 Corn Futures
March 2014 Corn Futures



 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $7.43 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $5.63. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $6.46.

 


 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
5.63
10%
5.90
20%
6.11
30%
6.29
40%
6.46
50%
6.65
60%
6.84
70%
7.08
80%
7.43
90%

 

Current Futures Price 6.50
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 0.7028
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 6.46


 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $7.22 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $4.10. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $5.43.

 


Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
4.10
10%
4.52
20%
4.85
30%
5.14
40%
5.43
50%
5.75
60%
6.11
70%
6.55
80%
7.22
90%
 

 

Current Futures Price 5.5675
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.2394
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

5.43

 



 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $7.56 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $4.01. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $5.50.

 


 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
4.01
10%
4.47
20%
4.84
30%
5.17
40%
5.50
50%
5.86
60%
6.27
70%
6.78
80%
7.56
90%

 

Current Futures Price 5.67
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.4206
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

5.50