Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Wheat




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Wheat Futures and Options Contract Specifications
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July 2013 Wheat Futures
December 2013 Wheat Futures
March 2014 Wheat Futures




There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $8.36 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $6.33. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $7.27.





Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
6.33
10%
6.64
20%
6.87
30%
7.07
40%
7.27
50%
7.47
60%
7.70
70%
7.97
80%
8.36
90%


Current Futures Price 7.31
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 0.7931
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 7.27

 




There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $9.62 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $5.67. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $7.38.




Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
5.67
10%
6.21
20%
6.63
30%
7.01
40%
7.38
50%
7.79
60%
8.23
70%
8.79
80%
9.62
90%


Current Futures Price 7.5375
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.5650
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 7.38

 





There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $10.01 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $5.59. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $7.47.



Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
5.59
10%
6.18
20%
6.64
30%
7.06
40%
7.47
50%
7.93
60%
8.43
70%
9.06
80%
10.01
90%



Current Futures Price 7.6675
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.7578
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 7.47