Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Soybeans


  

 

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July 2013 Soybean Futures
November 2013 Soybean Futures
March 2014 Soybean Futures

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $15.38 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $12.66. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $13.95.

 

 

 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
12.66
10%
13.09
20%
13.41
30%
13.69
40%

13.95

50%
14.23
60%
14.52
70%
14.88
80%
15.38
90%

 

Current Futures Price 13.99
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.0593
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 13.95

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $14.61 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $10.04.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $12.11.


 

 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
10.04
10%
10.71
20%
11.22
30%
11.67
40%
12.11
50%
12.57
60%
13.08
70%
13.70
80%
14.61
90%
 



 

Current Futures Price

12.235

Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.7939
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 12.11


 

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $15.32 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $9.70. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $12.18.

 

 
 
Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
9.70
10%
10.49
20%
11.10
30%
11.65
40%
12.18
50%
12.75
60%
13.38
70%
14.17
80%
15.32
90%

 

Current Futures Price 12.3725
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 2.2178
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 12.18