Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Soybean Meal

 


How to Use the Probabilistic Price Forecasts
Soybean Meal Futures and Options Contract Specifications
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July 2013 Soybean Meal Futures
December 2013 Soybean Meal Futures


There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $467.07 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $364.81.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $412.59.





Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
364.81
10%
380.58
20%
392.47
30%
402.79
40%
412.59
50%
423.03
60%
434.16
70%
447.72
80%
467.07
90%


Current Futures Price

414.50

Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 39.9461
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 412.59





Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
269.99
10%
291.68
20%
308.54
30%
323.52
40%
338.05
50%
353.84
60%
371.02
70%
392.47
80%
424.00
90%


Current Futures Price 343.30
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

60.7608

Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 338.05