Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Milk




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June 2013 Milk Futures
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There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $21.03 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $18.10.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $19.51.





Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
18.10
10%
18.57
20%
18.92
30%
19.22
40%
19.51
50%
19.80
60%
20.12
70%
20.50
80%
21.03
90%


Current Futures Price 19.54
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.1405
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 19.51



 
There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $21.97 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $16.98. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $19.30.
 

 
Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
16.98
10%
17.74
20%
18.32
30%
18.82
40%
19.30
50%
19.81
60%
20.36
70%
21.02
80%
21.97
90%

 
Current Futures Price 19.40
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.9522
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

19.30



There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $21.62 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $15.60.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $18.35.




Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
15.60
10%
16.49
20%
17.18
30%
17.78
40%
18.35
50%
18.97
60%
19.63
70%
20.44
80%
21.62
90%


Current Futures Price 18.50
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

2.3609

Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 18.35