Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Lean Hogs

 

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August 2013 Lean Hog Futures
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December 2013 Lean Hog Futures

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $102.82 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $82.02.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $91.79.


 

 

 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
82.02
10%
85.26
20%
87.69
30%
89.80
40%
91.79
50%
93.92
60%
96.17
70%
98.92
80%
102.82
90%

 

Current Futures Price 92.15
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 8.1208
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 91.79

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $94.34 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $71.10. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $81.85.

 

 

 

Price
  Probability that the realized     price at maturity will be less than this price
71.10
10%
74.63
20%
77.30
30%
79.63
40%
81.85
50%
84.23
60%
86.77
70%
89.88
80%
94.34
90%

 

Current Futures Price 82.35
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

9.0888

Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

81.85


 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $91.92 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $66.77. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $78.29.

 

 

Price
  Probability that the realized     price at maturity will be less than this price
66.77
10%
70.53
20%
73.39
30%
75.90
40%
78.29
50%
80.87
60%
83.63
70%
87.02
80%
91.92
90%
 


 

Current Futures Price

78.90

Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

9.8506

Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 78.29