Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Feeder and Live Cattle


   

 

How to Use the Probabilistic Price Forecasts
Live Cattle Futures and Options Contract Specifications
Home
October 2013 Feeder Cattle Futures
August 2013 Live Cattle Futures
December 2013 Live Cattle Futures

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $169.54 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $136.11.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $151.84.


 

 

 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
136.11
10%
141.33
20%
145.25
30%
148.64
40%
151.84
50%
155.26
60%
158.88
70%
163.28
80%
169.54
90%

 

Current Futures Price 152.40
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 13.0461
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 151.84

 


 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $131.61 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $113.81.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $122.35.

 

 

 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
113.81
10%
116.68
20%
118.81
30%
120.64
40%
122.35
50%
124.17
60%
126.08
70%
128.38
80%
131.61
90%

 

Current Futures Price

122.55

Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

6.9323

Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

122.35


 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $139.35 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $115.87. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $127.02.


 

 

 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
115.87
10%
119.59
20%
122.37
30%
124.76
40%
127.02
50%
129.42
60%
131.95
70%
135.01
80%
139.35
90%

 

Current Futures Price 127.35
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

9.1533

Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 127.02