How does uncertainty affect the management of natural systems

How does uncertainty affect the management of natural systems?

Michael L. Jones

Professor, Fisheries and Wildlife

Fish Population Dynamics and Management

My research interests lie in two areas: (1) increasing our understanding of the factors that govern the population dynamics of fishes and (2) incorporating our uncertainty about processes governing fish population dynamics into models that can be used to explore fisheries management options. I am particularly interested in seeking ways to design management of fisheries and other natural resources to be adaptive, that is to provide a mechanism for learning about these systems while at the same time meeting short-term socio-economic objectives.

My research will focus on the sea lamprey, a non-indigenous invader to the Great Lakes. Together with overfishing, the lamprey is held responsible for the extirpation of lake trout from Lake Michigan and near extirpation in Lakes Huron and Superior. I work closely with the Great Lakes Fishery Commission and their agents to increase our understanding the sea lamprey, primarily through research on their ecology and population dynamics during their life as larvae in Great Lakes tributary streams.

Selected Publications

Jones, M.L., C.K. Minns, D.R. Marmorek and K.J. Heltcher. 1991. Assessing the potential extent of damage to inland lakes in eastern Canada due to acidic deposition. IV. Uncertainty analysis of a regional model. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 48:599-606.

Jones, M.L. and L. Stanfield. 1993. Effects of exotic juvenile salmonines on growth and survival of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in a Lake Ontario tributary. In Production of Juvenile Atlantic Salmon, Salmo Salar, in Natural Waters, R.J. Gibson and R.E. Cutting (eds.), pp. 71-79. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish Aquatic Sci. 118.

Jones, M.L., J.F. Koonce and R. O'Gorman. 1993. Sustainability of hatchery dependent salmonine fisheries in Lake Ontario: The conflict between predator demand and prey supply. Trans. Amer. Fish. Soc. 122(5):1002-1018.

Jones, M.L. and J.D. Stockwell. 1995. A rapid assessment procedure for the enumeration of salmonine populations in streams. N. Amer. J. Fish. Manage. 15:551-562.

Jones, M.L., et al. 1996. Limitations to lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) rehabilitation in the Great Lakes imposed by biotic interactions occurring at early life stages. J. Great Lakes Res. 22:505-517.