Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Wheat
How to Use the Probabilistic Price Forecasts
Wheat Futures and Options Contract Specifications
Home		 July 2008 Wheat Futures
December 2008 Wheat Futures
March 2009 Wheat Futures




There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $9.82 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $6.74. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $8.13.




Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
6.74
10%
7.19
20%
7.53
30%
7.84
40%
8.13
50%
8.44
60%
8.78
70%
9.20
80%
9.82
90%


Current Futures Price 8.22
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.2090
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 8.13

 
There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $12.08 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $5.55. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $8.18.




Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
5.55
10%
6.34
20%
6.99
30%
7.58
40%
8.18
50%
8.84
60%
9.60
70%
10.57
80%
12.08
90%


Current Futures Price 8.5625
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 2.6481
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 8.18

 
There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $13.14 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $5.08. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $8.16.



Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
5.08
10%
5.98
20%
6.73
30%
7.44
40%
8.16
50%
8.98
60%
9.92
70%
11.17
80%
13.14
90%



Current Futures Price 8.74
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 3.3427
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 8.16