Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Soybeans


  

 

How to Use the Probabilistic Price Forecasts
Soybean Futures and Options Contract Specifications
Home		 July 2008 Soybean Futures
November 2008 Soybean Futures
March 2009 Soybean Futures

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $15.64 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $10.75. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $12.96.

 

 

 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
10.75
10%
11.46
20%
12.01
30%
12.49
40%
12.96
50%
13.46
60%
14.00
70%
14.67
80%
15.64
90%

 

Current Futures Price 13.10
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.9243
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 12.96

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $17.30 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $8.28.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $11.95.

 

 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
8.28
10%
9.39
20%
10.30
30%
11.12
40%
11.95
50%
12.88
60%
13.91
70%
15.25
80%
17.30
90%
 



 

Current Futures Price

12.4575
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 3.6444
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 11.95

 

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $18.53 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $7.79. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $11.99.

 

 
 
Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
7.79
10%
9.03
20%
10.06
30%
11.02
40%
11.99
50%
13.09
60%
14.34
70%
15.97
80%
18.53
90%

 

Current Futures Price 17.70
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 4.4061
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 11.99