Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Soybean Meal



 



How to Use the Probabilistic Price Forecasts
Soybean Meal Futures and Options Contract Specifications
Home		 July 2008 Soybean Meal Futures
December 2008 Soybean Meal Futures


There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $394.78 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $279.93.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $332.21.




Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
279.93
10%
296.90
20%
309.89
30%
321.28
40%
332.21
50%
343.97
60%
356.62
70%
372.21
80%
394.78
90%


Current Futures Price 335.20
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 45.0383
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 332.21

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $434.27 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $196.17.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $291.42.




Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
196.17
10%
224.76
20%
248.14
30%
269.74
40%
291.42
50%
315.82
60%
343.32
70%
379.03
80%
434.27
90%


Current Futures Price 305.70
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

96.8337
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 291.42