Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Milk
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Wheat Futures and Options Contract Specifications
Home		 September 2008 Milk Futures
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March 2009 Milk Futures




There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $24.30 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $16.70.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $20.13.




Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
16.70
10%
17.81
20%
18.66
30%
19.41
40%
20.13
50%
20.91
60%
21.75
70%
22.79
80%
24.30
90%


Current Futures Price 20.35
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 2.9829
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 20.13



 
There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $25.02 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $15.54. This ndicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $19.70.
 

 
Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
15.54
10%
16.86
20%
17.89
30%
18.81
40%
19.70
50%
20.68
60%
21.74
70%
23.06
80%
25.02
90%

 
Current Futures Price 20.05
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 3.7448
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 19.70


There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $24.76 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $14.14.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $18.70.




Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
14.14
10%
15.57
20%
16.69
30%
17.70
40%
18.70
50%
19.79
60%
20.98
70%
22.50
80%
24.76
90%


Current Futures Price 19.15
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

4.2223
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 18.70