Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Lean Hogs

 

How to Use the Probabilistic Price Forecasts
Lean Hogs Futures and Options Contract Specifications
Home		 June 2008 Lean Hog Futures
August 2008 Lean Hog Futures
December 2008 Lean Hog Futures

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $92.32 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $66.32.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $78.19.

 

 

 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
66.32
10%
70.18
20%
73.13
30%
75.72
40%
78.19
50%
80.86
60%
83.72
70%
87.24
80%
92.32
90%

 

Current Futures Price 78.85
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 10.1918
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 78.19

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $100.43 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $57.68. This ndicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $76.03.

 

 

 

Price
  Probability that the realized     price at maturity will be less than this price
57.68
10%
63.43
20%
67.96
30%
72.04
40%
76.03
50%
80.42
60%
85.24
70%
91.33
80%
100.43
90%

 

Current Futures Price 77.825
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

16.9851
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

76.03

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $108.10 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $60.33. This ndicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $80.67.

 

 

Price
  Probability that the realized     price at maturity will be less than this price
60.33
10%
66.67
20%
71.69
30%
76.22
40%
80.67
50%
85.57
60%
90.98
70%
97.83
80%
108.10
90%
 


 

Current Futures Price

82.775
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

19.0278
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 80.67