Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Corn


   


 

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Corn Futures and Options Contract Specifications
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July 2008 Corn Futures
December 2008 Corn Futures
March 2009 Corn Futures


 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $7.69 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $5.03. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $6.21.

 


 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
5.03
10%
5.41
20%
5.70
30%
5.96
40%
6.21
50%
6.48
60%
6.78
70%
7.15
80%
7.69
90%

 

Current Futures Price 6.3025
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.0459
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 6.21

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $9.29 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $4.06. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $6.13.

 


Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
4.06
10%
4.68
20%
5.19
30%
5.66
40%
6.13
50%
6.67
60%
7.27
70%
8.06
80%
9.29
90%
 

 

Current Futures Price 6.4625
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 2.1351
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 6.13

 


 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $9.69 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $3.95. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $6.17.

 


 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
3.95
10%
4.60
20%
5.15
30%
5.66
40%
6.17
50%
6.76
60%
7.43
70%
8.31
80%
9.69
90%

 

Current Futures Price 6.5675
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 2.3661
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 6.17