Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Feeder and Live Cattle


   

 

How to Use the Probabilistic Price Forecasts
Live Cattle Futures and Options Contract Specifications
Home		 August 2008 Feeder Cattle Futures
June 2008 Live Cattle Futures
October 2008 Live Cattle Futures

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $124.04 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $95.73.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $108.91.

 

 

 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
95.73
10%
100.07
20%
103.35
30%
106.20
40%
108.91
50%
111.81
60%
114.89
70%
118.66
80%
124.04
90%

 

Current Futures Price 109.475
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 11.0661
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 108.91

 


 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $112.12 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $87.19.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $98.82.

 

 

 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
87.19
10%
91.02
20%
93.92
30%
96.43
40%
98.82
50%
101.37
60%
1404.08
70%
107.39
80%
112.12
90%

 

Current Futures Price

99.30
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 9.7388
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 98.82

 

There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $128.21 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $86.59. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $105.29.

 

 

 

Price
Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price
86.59
10%
92.61
20%
97.25
30%
101.34
40%
105.29
50%
109.55
60%
114.16
70%
119.88
80%
128.21
90%

 

Current Futures Price 106.525
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity

16.3621
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 105.29